Thursday, 31 May 2012


The streets across many parts of India may appear empty on account of the nationwide ‘Bharat Bandh’ called by the Opposition in protest against the petrol price hike. The key Indian stock indices will open lower again as world markets continue to reel under the seemingly never-ending debt troubles of the eurozone. All eyes will be on Q4 GDP data and the Rupee. Volatility may inch up due to the F&O expiry.

The May series has also been pretty bad and there is no silver lining on the horizon as yet - be it the spate of domestic macro-economic issues or overseas headwinds. Therefore, one must remain guarded and vigilant. One may start accumulating at lower levels from the medium- to long-term perspective. Avoid misadventures and stick to quality counters. Don't forget to do proper homework before committing yourself to any counter. Get out of weak counters.

Reports that the monsoon is likely to be delayed are adding to the emptiness the market is experiencing. The good news is that the Government has taken steps to address some issues in mining and oil & gas sectors. The result season has almost drawn to a close.

Crude oil has taken a tumble, which is good for India. However, the rupee must recover to gain from the drop in oil prices. OMCs are likely to hold fortnightly review today. One has to see whether they announce any rollback in petrol hike.

The Q4 GDP figures could show further evidence of deceleration in growth. The Indian economy slowed from 8.5% yoy across 2010 to 6.1% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2011 and likely cooled further in early 2012, according to Moody’s Analytics. It estimates Q4 GDP growth of 5.9% yoy. 
Key Results Today: BEML, Timex Group and TT. 
 If Nifty is unable to sustain above 4800 then we may see further downside till 4700 and lower. However, we remain more biased towards the upside in the immediate term. 


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